SUMMARY
Kyselova O.M. Stirring up of Ukraine export potential on the Russian direction. - Manuscript.
The dissertation for candidate degree in economics by specialty 08.02.03 - organization of management, planning and regulation of economy. - Dniepropetrovsk national university of Ministry of Education of Ukraine.
The dissertation is devoted to problems of stirring up of Ukraine export potential in foreign trade activity with Russian Federation, in particular to promote Ukrainian goods on the Russian market, focusing attention on economic means of mutual relations regulation and their efficiency.
Current stage of the problem and prerequisites of further Ukraine export activity development on the Russian direction have been analyzed. Features and basic phases of foreign trade regime forming in mutual relations have been defined. The inference about necessity to stir up state’s efforts for increasing efficiency of export potential utilization has been proved and the complex of measures for its realization has been suggested. The models for estimation influence of basic macroeconomics indexes on value of Ukrainian goods export to Russian Federation and for its value forecast have been elaborated.
In the first chapter there is grounded great importance of foreign trade, in particular Ukraine export relations, for developing national economy under conditions of market transformation, analyzed legislative system of regulation of Ukraine foreign trade with Russian Federation and its impact on native exports, as well as determined basic directions of researcher’s analysis.
In the second chapter foreign trade of Ukraine and Russia is analyzed deeply, focusing on Ukrainian exports, as well as perspective directions and fields for Ukraine goods export to Russian Federation are determined. Some sub-units of machinery construction and agriculture are grounded as perspective directions.
In the third chapter as means of macroeconomic planning neural-fuzzy models of basic macroeconomic indexes impact analysis and short-term exports forecast are built. Unlike known models, the suggested ones allow to reconstruct more adequately complicated dependences under fuzzy data and short experimental samplings.
In the fourth chapter using the models, joint impact of the chosen macroeconomic indexes on the value of exports was estimated, in other words computation of the export value for any combination of macroeconomic variables included in the model was conducted. Forecasting export value of Ukraine was calculated, changing macroeconomic variables. Ranges of macroeconomic indexes changes, when export is stable and relatively high, were determined. The analysis was conducted to develop recommendations for export regulation. It testifies that current stage of export ties with Russian Federation does not meet long term interests of Ukraine. Measures of state regulation for restructuring Ukrainian export ties with Russian Federation are provided.
Key words: foreign trade, export potential, market transformation, state regulation, foreign trade legislation, state of the market, system analysis, neural-fuzzy technologies.